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Virtual Training Courses offered to AA&S Attendees

Introduction to Probabilistic Methods with Applications to Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis

Instructors:
Harry Millwater, University of Texas at San Antonio
Juan Ocampo, St. Mary’s University
Marv Nuss, Nuss Sustainment Solutions
Chris Hurst, Textron Aviation
Beth Gamble, Ret.
Nathan Crosby, University of Texas at San Antonio


Tuesday, August 25, 2020 | 9:00 AM - 12:30 PM


This training is provided by a team of engineers working on an FAA funded grant to develop a probabilistic structural risk assessment software tool. This team is led by Dr. Harry Millwater of the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). Other team members who will provide instruction are: Dr. Juan Ocampo, St. Mary’s University; Nathan Crosby, UTSA; Beth Gamble and Christ Hurst, Textron Aviation; and Marv Nuss, Nuss Sustainment Solutions. Examples using the Smart|DT software tool will be provided.

The objective of this training is to provide attendees with an overview of probabilistic methods in general and the data and methods needed for application to damage tolerance analysis.

Topics will include:

  • Probability distributions: normal, lognormal, Weibull, extreme value
  • Probability attributes: mean, median, PDF, CDF
  • Monte Carlo sampling method
  • Setting confidence intervals
  • Selecting the right distribution from data
  • Probabilistic database: Materials, EIFS, and NDE POD curves
  • Graphical and visual methods: histograms, Box-whisker plots, scatter plots
  • Fundamentals for probability damage tolerance analysis (PDTA)
    • Random variable definitions
    • Probabilistic database
    • Single flight probability-of-failure
    • Load modeling
  • PDTA case studies using the Smart|DT software.


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